The unsustainability of the Raptors offense

The Toronto Raptors’ inconsistency this season has mind boggled quite a few people, especially me. One game, they thrash the Atlanta Hawks, another they lose to the league’s worst New York Knicks. 

It’s becoming increasingly clear that the offense is the key driver to this team’s inconsistency. The offense sets the tone defensively, and when an opposing team has to work hard defensively, their offense naturally suffers.

In wins, the Raptors average approximately 109 points. This is elite offense, and they shoot a respectable 47%. In losses, they score around 97 points and shoot nearly 42%. While this isn’t mind boggling, when we dig a bit deeper we find some interesting tidbits.

DeMar DeRozan, Kyle Lowry, and Lou Williams are the three players that account for a large portion of the Raptors’ field goal attempts. In fact, they take about 50% of the teams’ shots. Take a look at the chat below and see how things change in wins and losses.

Starting to get the picture? The isolation heavy offense that the Raptors resort to is significantly unsustainable and inconsistent. If DeRozan, Lowry, or Lou cannot create offense on any given night, the Raptors offense goes kaput. Thus, the Raptors winning or losing seems to heavily rely on these three, and given how inconsistent have been offensively, it’s lead to an inconsistent Raptors offense.

DeRozan is an interesting case, because we all know what he’s capable of (H/T last night). His injury really has taken away from his aggressiveness, and the shooting slump has been concerning. However, DeRozan is the type of player that improves as the season goes on, and he should start to pick it up.

We’ve seen Kyle Lowry save the Raptors many times, and I think anybody could have told you that the team needs him more than anyone in wins. Given that, Lowry is also relied upon to bail the Raptors out, and he’s usually trying to be a hero when the Raptors are on the verge of a loss. The spike in his field goal attempts exemplifies this.

The huge drop-off in Lou Williams’ production is particularly interesting. His FG% in losses is substantially lower than in wins. Does that mean Lou is the x-factor here? Potentially. It also means that he needs to shoot a lot less and stop chucking in situations where the Raptors are in a hole.

The bottom line is that everything is fine and dandy when the Raptors are winning games. The offense looks good, DeRozan, Lowry and Lou would have likely played decently well, and there wouldn’t be much complaining. However, games against a tough defensive team, or when these guys are having an off night, or when teams understand how to guard them when an isolation clear out results in some poor, puzzling losses.

The solution to this problem is actually fairly simple. Look to the inside.

Jonas Valanciunas, Amir Johnson, and James Johnson are insanely efficient. I mean, these guys are consistent, take high quality shots, and have relatively low usage rates. Incorporating more plays for them and playing less inconsistent iso-ball would result in a steadier offense for the Raptors that will bode well for the playoffs. Moving the ball more will also certainly help the problem, however this would require the Raptors’ stars to have more trust in players such as Terrence Ross.

The usage rate for Lowry and DeRozan doesn’t necessarily have to change. The way they get their shots does.