Every good risk has a plan if it fails. Not to say that when Masai Ujiri traded for Kawhi Leonard, his plan failed – in fact, it turned out better than anyone could have expected – however it’s time to see what the future of this franchise holds. The future of this team lies in the hands of Kawhi Leonard, dependent on his free agency, but Masai has a plan if things go the other way.
Of course, the easiest way for the Raptors to go through the summer would be to have Kawhi stay, whether that be on a 5 year/$190M deal that only the Raptors can offer him, or a 2 year max deal with a player option in the second year, giving Masai and Bobby all the chips to hold for the summer of 2020.
The contingency plan would not be as simple. Suppose Kawhi Leonard left for one of the L.A. teams. The Raptors would have Kyle Lowry, Serge Ibaka, and Fred VanVleet on the books until 2020, taking up $33.3M and $23.3M, and $8.7M respectively, then have Norman Powell eating up $10.1M whose contracts ends in the summer of 2021 with an additional one year player option. Additionally, there’s Marc Gasol, who may opt into his one-year player option of nearly $26M, which would put Larry Tannenbaum and company deep into the repeater’s tax this year.
If Gasol opts out to re-structure, with other guys like OG Anunoby, Pascal Siakam, Chris Boucher, Malcolm Miller, and Justin Hamilton (due to the stretch provision used to waive him in 2017) on the books, the Raptors are left with just under $25M in actual cap space, however due to the cap holds of Danny Green and Lucas Nogueira, this is all dead money. This means that to keep the bird rights of Danny Green and company, we lose 150% of their previous salaries in cap space, but do not actually pay that money to anyone. Essentially, the Raptors have no space to recruit a replacement star if Kawhi leaves, so barring the idea that Masai calls it the end of this era and trades Lowry, Ibaka, and Norm to free up what would be enough space for a max contract slot, this team would likely run it back with the same core next yeae, then throw some punches in the free agent market in the summer of 2020 when the Raptors’ books would be essentially clear aside from Norman Powell, OG Anunoby (assuming the Raps pick up his fourth year option), and Siakam’s hopeful extension.
So let’s say Kawhi is gone. Gasol has opted out. The Raptors have no cap room. What now? With bird rights to Gasol and Green, the Raptors could sign them and go over the cap before filling out the roster with minimum free agents. This is the beauty of bird rights – the biggest upside. Cap space doesn’t really matter, aside from the bill that ownership will have to pay to the league.
A team lead by an aging Gasol and Lowry, with Siakam as the primary scoring option doesn’t seem too qualified, but Masai knew exactly what he was doing when he made the trade. He knew that Kawhi might leave, and he had the roster set up for long term contention. As aforementioned, the Raptors could have two max contract slots in the summer of 2020, with Siakam signed to a long term extension. If Lowry and Gasol are still able to give 20 good minutes a night, and are willing to re-sign for pennies to win another championship in Toronto, that will give Masai the opportunity to sign the long time rumoured Raptor: Giannis Antetokounmpo.
Masai helped Giannis immigrate to North America prior to the 2013 NBA draft, as a friend of Giannis’ father. He tried to trade for Oklahoma City’s 12th overall pick to draft Giannis before the Bucks could snag him at 15, but the trade was contingent upon Steven Adams’ availability at 12. If he was off the board, the Raptors would have had the pick, and Giannis would have been a Raptor.
Giannis has previously stated that Milwaukee is where he wants to be, however we know how quickly superstars can have a change of heart (i.e. Kyrie Irving).
To summarize; if Kawhi leaves then next season will be one of growth – mainly for Siakam, Anunoby, and also Nurse. The Raptors will run it back with the same core, assuming Gasol and Green are willing to stay on a Kawhi-less team. The Raptors may look to experiment by signing some younger role players to cheap contracts, and try to develop them into stars like Siakam. We likely will not be in championship contention next season, albeit one of the better teams in the league, however we might just steal the show next summer.
Regardless of what Masai does though, do not doubt him. He is head and shoulders above everyone else as the best executive in the league. Even if he signs me to a max, trust the process. He won’t though, because he won’t be able to, because Kawhi’s Staying.
