The NBA is a league where superstars win championships. Whether it’s Lebron James and Anthony Davis this year, Kevin Durant and Stephen Curry in 2017-18, or the San Antonio Spurs before them, teams don’t win big without superstars. Sure, there are some exceptions (the 2004 Pistons being the prime example), but they’re few and far between. As much as we Raptors fans love being the underdog, and we take pride in our players who play tough defense and fight hard on every play, that can only get you so far. Even the Raptors didn’t win until they traded All-Star DeMar DeRozan for superstar Kawhi Leonard.
The Toronto Raptors are a very good, deep, and well-rounded team. And that’s great, but that gives them a clear ceiling. Without a superstar the Raptors are not in a position to make another run at a championship like they did in 2019. Even if the Raptors get out of the Eastern Conference next year, they’re all but guaranteed to run into a team with at least one, if not two superstars coming out of the West. The Raptors went all in on a superstar once, and if they want to build a dynasty, they’re going to need to do it again.
The question is; how do they go about doing that? Does the front office really believe that Pascal Siakam is their future superstar? I don’t think they do. So do they hit the rebuild button and try and hit a homerun in the draft? Neither the front office nor the fans have any interest in that, and we’ve seen how well that worked for the 76ers. The solution here is to hit the reset button for one year, make room in the salary cap, build around your young core, and hit big with Giannis Antetokounmpo in free agency next summer.
The clear cut most important part of this reset is signing Giannis in free agency, so let’s talk about how the Raptors go about pulling that off. We know Giannis is a bona-fide superstar, winning back-to-back league MVPs, and because of this, teams will be lined up to make him a max offer next summer. Giannis has one year left on his current deal with the Milwaukee Bucks, and will be eligible to sign a five-year, $247.3 million extension once free agency opens up late next week. Giannis has made no commitment to signing the extension and many people in the NBA believe he won’t unless the Bucks prove they’re all in to win a championship. For our purposes let’s assume he doesn’t. All teams not named the Bucks will be capable of offering Giannis a four-year contract worth up to $40 million per year. So let’s take a look at the Raptors salary cap situation.
Giannis doesn’t hit the open market until summer 2021, when the Raptors only have $46,500,570 committed to players for the following season. Of course Toronto will have to deal with how Siakam fits into this equation, but we’ll get there soon, I promise. Clearly the Raptors wouldn’t be able to sign Giannis while paying Lowry and Ibaka on their next contracts if they’re anything like their current deals. Let’s assume Lowry and Ibaka would get paid the same in free agency as they got paid this year for now. The Raptors also have the issue of resigning Fred VanVleet, who’s going to command 20+ million on the open market during this free agency period.
This is when Masai is going to have to hit the reset for just one year. Take one year off trying to win a championship with this group, and commit to the future to compete for years to come. This off-season, the Raptors need to resign VanVleet – he’s our point guard of the future as Lowry continues to age. After re-signing VanVleet, the Raptors reset can kick into action. As much as it will hurt to say goodbye to the greatest Raptor of all time in Kyle Lowry, a package of Lowry, Powell, and a future first round pick is all but guaranteed to land you a top five pick in the draft. Re-signing OG Anunoby and hopefully Terence Davis (if he gets his off the court issues figured out), gives you a core of VanVleet, Davis, Anunoby, Siakam, and your lottery pick (I’m hoping James Wiseman to round out the starting lineup). That’s a starting five that can compete right now while giving the Raptors cap space to pursue Giannis in free agency 2021.
Whether Siakam fits into playing alongside Giannis is ultimately up to Nick Nurse. Our Coach of the Year will decide whether Siakam and Giannis fit well playing alongside each other (which may ultimately depend on the growth of their three point shooting) or whether the Raptors would be best suited to trade Siakam for another high-level guard to pair in the back court with VanVleet.
It may be hard to see some of our favourite Raptors leave, but we felt the same way when DeRozan was traded, and we have no regrets after winning our first championship. This move allows you to build around a strong point guard (VanVleet), a top 5 pick, a high-quality three-and-D player (Anunoby), another All-Star caliber player (Siakam, or who he gets traded for), and most importantly a superstar in Giannis.
A one-year reset could make all the difference between a very good team, and one of the greatest dynasties that the league has ever seen.
