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Predicting the Raptors rotation this season

Following a turbulent free agency period which saw two more members of the Toronto Raptors championship squad dash for the brighter lights of Hollywood, the team’s roster is finally complete heading into the 2020-2021 season. Questions are still looming around the Raptors’ lack of depth at the power forward position, and whether the organization will … Read more

How Pascal Siakam can evolve into a true superstar

Pascal Siakam was the 27th pick in the NBA draft only four years ago. He was a raw talent, who had only played basketball for about six years. These are the type of players who can be harbouring untapped potential and achieve major improvements, or they are a swing and a miss who is out of the league in just a few years. Siakam has already clearly shown to be the former. In year one, he was a decent defender who brought almost nothing to the table on offence. Year two, he became a valuable piece on arguably the best bench unit in the entire league. His third season, he was the league’s most improved player and the second/third option on a championship team. Last season, he was an All-Star starter and named to the second All-NBA team, leading the Toronto Raptors to a 60 win pace.

(Frank Gunn/The Canadian Press via AP)

Undoubtedly, it has been a strange and abbreviated offseason. Siakams growth in his first four seasons has been due to putting in serious work during the summers. This offseason has been the shortest offseason of Siakams career. He is unable to get his well-documented Rico Hines training in with the border restrictions in place. Since Siakam is not as polished as other NBA players, who have been playing basketball their whole lives, he showed signs of rust once the season resumed in Orlando. Despite this, there is reason to be optimistic that Siakam has been working on improvements since the season ended for the Raptors in September. Let’s take a look at some areas we could see improvement.

Three-point Shot

The most significant improvement last season from Siakam was his three-point shooting from above the break. In 2018-2019 Siakam improved his three pointer significantly from the previous season from 22% to 37%. He also increased his attempts per game by nearly double from 1.6 to 2.7. At this time, he was mainly shooting open corner threes – often as the beneficiary of a drive and kick or a good ball movement on the perimeter. Last season, his percentage was slightly down from 37% to 36%; however, the growth was even more impressive. Siakam was finding his own shot, shooting off the dribble threes from above the break, and taking 6.1 attempts per game.

Despite the already insane growth, it is likely that Siakam will continue to improve this part of his game for the upcoming season. This has clearly been a main point of emphasis for Siakams improvement. Raptors fans should appreciate three-point shot improvements like this even more after watching Demar DeRozen fail to ever accomplish this skill. The amount that Siakam has improved his shot is coming at an unprecedented rate. It compares to no other player in league history.

Photo from NBA.com

Concerningly, Siakam has shown tendencies to have his three-pointer disappear in the playoffs. In 2019, he dropped to 28%, and in the Orlando bubble playoffs he plummeted to just 19%. The main thing Siakam needs to work on is consistency with his three. As brilliant as it looked at time during the regular season, many of Siakams shots were ill-advised and missed badly. The consistency will likely come with time and continued work. If he is able to pick his spots and become more consistent, Siakam has the ability to shoot 7-8 threes per game and hit close to 40% of them. However, the main improvement will be doing it with playoff level intensity.

Develop counter moves in the post

We all know and love Siakams infamous spin moveHe showed shades of it during his second season with the Raptors, but it was during his most improved 2018-2019 season that it had become his signature move. It seemed like no player in the league could defend it for a while. Siakams finishing close to the rim was elite, at 67% from within five feet. The first time that we saw a defender lock this move down, was Joel Embiid in the 2019 second round. He was big enough to body Siakam and force him into outside shots. In this year’s playoffs, we saw Jaylen Brown and Marcus Smart sit on the spin move and swipe it away before he could get the ball up to the rim.

Siakam has multiple areas to improve with this part of his game. First, he needs to improve as a face-up threat. We saw Siakam develop a mid-range shot this year, and it was respectable. He shot 36.7% from five to nine feet, and 32% from ten to fifteen feet. Those numbers aren’t amazing but for a player who had never featured these shots, it was a promising start. If Siakam can become an above 40% threat from these ranges it will do wonders for his game. This will allow Siakam to have more isolation plays where he can expose shorter defenders (like Marcus Smart) who are waiting for Siakam to put the ball on the floor. If teams decide to go with smaller strong guards to defend Siakam, he can simply shoot over them.

A second improvement for Siakam is to identify double teams. As noted above, the Siakam spin move is a well-documented signature around the NBA. Often, he will get a mismatch with a poor defender, back them down, and spin right into a second defender who was reading this play. Siakam needs to a) be quicker when hunting these matchups, and b) be aware if a second player cheats to meet him on the spin. If Siakam can have the awareness to identify the help defender, that will likely mean that one of his teammates will be open for a three, or a back-door layup. This will drive his assist total upwards, lower his turnovers, as well as limit the amount of doubles he receives. He showed the ability to pass out of double teams last year, but not anywhere near the elite level of the Giannis Antetokounmpos of the world.

Tighten his handle

Looking at Siakam in his rookie season, it is unfathomable to think that he could ever be a primary ball-handler. But here we are now. Last season, Point Pascal was officially born. We saw Siakam carry the ball up the floor, create looks for himself, and initiate the offence. Of course he was not the main ball handler on the team, but he took many possessions. The problem with Point Pascal is that his handle isn’t quite good enough to be a lead ball handler. 

At the beginning of the season, we saw more of Siakam initiating the offence. The turnovers became a bit of a problem and the season of Point Pascal never came to its full potential. Siakam is a decent catch and shoot player, as well as an elite off-ball cutter. Being the primary ball handler for the team is not necessary, but there are plenty of other reasons that improving his handle would benefit his game. First, it would allow Siakam to run the pink-and-roll which could create all sorts of chaos for slower players who try to guard Siakam at the top of the break. Imagine Siakam running a Lowry-esque pick and roll with Serge Ibaka. As good as Lowry is at getting to the rim if the defenders over help on Serge, Siakam would be even more deadly. He is already a good passer (although improvement will help) but the threat that he would present on the drive could be a very difficult matchup for his opponents.

The main reason that a tighter handler would benefit Siakam is his ability to blow by defenders. He is so quick and athletic, that if he had a quick first dribble he would be able to get to the paint at will. We saw it with Jayson Tatum and Kemba Walker these playoffs. When the Celtics got the match ups they wanted on switches, the Raptors were in scramble mode. They would blow by their man up top, either have a layup/dunk, or have the Raptors help defence leave wide open corner threes. Kemba was good, but seeing a guy like Tatum do it at his size is truly different. Siakam has the speed and athleticism to do this, it’s just the handle that needs work. We’ve seen Siakam get himself tangled up in the situations. If he can improve this skill, the benefits for the rest of the team will be significant.

NBA -- Inside Pascal Siakam's 6,000-mile journey to Raptors stardom

https://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/23396205/nba-pascal-siakam-6000-mile-journey-raptors-stardom

The new and (even more) improved, Pascal Siakam

I want to be clear here. Pascal Siakam is an awesome basketball player. He is a deserving All-Star and has blown away and realistic expectations from being the 27th pick in 2016. As is, Siakam has already proven that he can be the second or third option on a championship team. That alone signals that he is worth every penny of the max contract that he was given by the Raptors. We have grown to have unreasonable expectations for a player that has given us far more than we could’ve ever imagined. But still, we speculate and believe that Siakam can make major improvements every year until he doesn’t. 

Let’s remember he is 26 years old, but in terms of learning curves, he has played a lot less basketball than other players his age. This past year was a huge year for Siakams final-product. He, and the Raptors, had the choice of whether he should develop into a Giannis-lite, post-dominate, back to the basket player, or a more rangey wing player like we see today. Siakam still has Giannis-lite traits, but I think the right call was made with this trajectory. There is the possibility that could add some more size, but his speed and shooting are very crucial skills to have in today’s game.

 If Siakam can continue his unprecedented growth into this season, all of these improvements are reasonable. Totally unfair, but reasonable by his standards. He has gone from an unknown rookie, to a bench star, to the Most Improved Player, to a second team All-NBA player. The next step would be to become a Most Valuable Player candidate. If Siakam can hit these goals, he will be at this level. That is a player who could be the best player on a champion, but would likely need to be paired with another similar caliber player. In today’s league, most teams have two stars and he could be one of them for Toronto.

Pascal Siakams 2020-2021 stat projection (if he continues his torrid growth)

27.5 PTS/ 5.0 AST / 7.5 REB / 1.2 STL / 0.9 BLK / 3.5 TO / 48.5 FG% / 39.5 3P%

How the Raptors can pre-build a contender around Giannis

If you haven’t already heard, the Toronto Raptors are on the list of teams pursuing the reigning back-to-back Most Valuable Player. Of course they are. Any team would love to add Giannis Antetokounmpo to their roster. It has been made very clear that they are using this Free Agency period to prepare for the chance to sign Giannis next summer. Who knows exactly how likely their chances are of landing him and there is no way to know until he signs his next contract, whether in Milwaukee or elsewhere. Raptors fans will salivate at the prospect of acquiring Giannis until the day (if) he signs a super max with the Bucks, but we must remember that he is just a piece of the puzzle and not the whole thing. An extremely important piece, of course.5 Reasons Why Giannis Antetokounmpo Should Sign With The Toronto Raptors – Fadeaway World

5 Reasons Why Giannis Antetokounmpo Should Sign With The Toronto Raptors

We know that Giannis is one of the best players in the game today, but he alone cannot win an NBA championship (which is the case for most any Superstar in league history). Sure Kawhi Leonard was the key for the Raptors 2019 championship run, but the rest of the team around him was equally necessary. Leonard is already calling for change to the Los Angeles Clippers roster after a second round exit in year one with his new team. Look at Steph Curry, a three time NBA champion, he could not win without Kevin Durant and a hobbled Klay Thompson in 2019. We know that Lebron James has infamously had rosters overhauled to create a champion. James Harden, Russell Westbrook, Chris Paul, have gone their whole careers unable to find that perfect formula to win it all. Its not an easy task.

We’ve seen what the Bucks have tried in Milwaukee with Giannis. The results have not been abysmal – however, they have not won the ultimate prize. The 2019-2020 Raptors were a team constructed around Leonard… minus Leonard. They can replace that superstar void with Giannis,but he has different needs than Kawhi did. So how exactly should the Raptors look by the start of the 2021-2022 season, assuming they can land Giannis Antetokounmpo? Well they have options.

The Starting Front-court

In Milwaukee, Giannis has been paired with a Center in Brook Lopez. He served as a solid option as a good rim protector and stretch big. His other front court partner, Khris Middleton, is an elite shooter and solid wing defender. The Raptors have a chance to become a revolutionary front court with Giannis in the mix. Imagine an OG Anunoby, Pascal Siakam, Giannis front-court. Sure you don’t have a traditional centre in this lineup, but you have three players who can switch on to any defensive matchup. How nice would that have been during last postseason after watching Marc Gasol and Serge Ibaka get cooked when switched onto Kemba Walker and Jayson Tatum. Not only is this trio extremely versatile, they might be three of the top 10-20 defenders in the entire NBA at any position. Any one of them can fill in as a centre on defence and provide floor spacing on offence better than most other centres.

Raptors blog: Anunoby thrives one night, struggles the next but looks good at guard | Basketball | Sports | The Telegram

Photo from – Jesse Johnson-USA TODAY Sports

The only other Raptors currently with the team who are candidates for a position here are Gasol and Ibaka. It is unlikely that Gasol will return this season (never mind next) and even if he does he is already showing signs of his age. Ibaka could be an option if OG is moved to the shooting guard, but that would really crowd the rim with a Siakam-Giannis-Ibaka trio who aren’t elite shooters. I like the idea of Ibaka being a sixth or seventh man, but he may be priced out of the team.

The Raptors could look to move Siakam or OG for a back court player such as Bradley Beal, or Jrue Holiday. This is intriguing, but unlikely. If they were to move OG, they could look for help elsewhere in 10-12 million dollar options like Christian Wood, Richaun Holmes, or acquire a player like Jarrett Allen in a trade. Myles Turner could be an option as he is rumoured to be moving on from the Indiana Pacers. He would likely cost them either OG, or a sign and trade involving Fred VanVleet.

The Starting Backcourt

The main question for the Raptors before this season begins is if they can bring back Fred VanVleet, who is currently an Unrestricted Free Agent – and looking to get paid. Fred is an elite shooter from distance, as well as an elite defender. He can guard shifty point guards (like Kemba Walker, or Steph Curry) better than almost anyone in the league. Further, Fred is a good passer and an adequate floor general. He likely cannot be the primary ball handler on a championship-level team and benefits from spending time playing off ball to get open looks. He profiles similar to a former teammate of Giannis, in Malcolm Brogdon, who fit very well with Giannis. If they can keep Fred in that 18-22 million dollar per year contract, he figures to be a good third or fourth option on a team with Giannis.

Next, we have our beloved Kyle Lowry. Kyle signed a one year extension before last season that keeps him with the Raptors until next summer. This is a tricky one. Lowry would surely be a compliment for Giannis, but how much can we expect from a 35 year old point guard? Last season he was arguably the best player on the team. This season he needs to be just as good if the Raptors want to hang with the top dogs in the Eastern Conference. To me, the answer is easy: never give up on Kyle Lowry. Barring a complete fall off this season it would be wise to keep Lowry’s leadership and talents into the Giannis era if he can be afforded alongside the rest of the younger core.

The Raptors should consider splitting Kyle Lowry and Fred VanVleet

@NBA Canada/Twitter

Norman Powell is a potential in-house candidate if Kyle leaves for a starting backcourt position alongside Fred. Personally, I don’t love the fit. Norm isn’t a good enough passer or floor general to work with Freds inefficiencies in running an offence. For the same reason, I don’t believe that moving OG to the backcourt and going with a really big lineup would be the solution either. Norm could be a valuable bench piece for this team as a scoring option, but there is a good chance that they will have to move on from him to clear space for Giannis with Fred, OG, and Kyle needing new contracts as well.

If the Raptors are to lose Kyle or Fred (or both but let’s hope not) they should look elsewhere to fill the void. Victor Oladipo will be a Free Agent and has been linked to the Raptors. Injuries are a concern with Oladipo, and who knows what his price range will be on a new contract. Caris LeVert would be an intriguing option to replace Fred if he is to walk the summer. He will likely cost a decent price in a trade, but he has shown flashes of brilliance as a ball handler and playmaker with the Brooklyn Nets. Evan Fournier will be a UFA next summer and could be a cheaper solution than the above mentioned, which would leave some cap space for the bench. He is a decent playmaker, a good shooter, and a somewhat capable ball handler that can be a high-end 5th starter. A VanVleet-Fournier backcourt isn’t ideal, but could be a solid backup plan. The options are thin and unless an unlikely candidate emerges for this position I would take an ageing Kyle Lowry and Fred VanVleet over any other option.

The Bench

Depending on how the starters are shaped the bench can take many different variations. If the Raptors are loading up with the Starters, the bench will have to be full of affordable players. As much as I love Norm and Serge, I find it unlikely that they will be able to be a part of the team due to cap restrictions. Additionally, It seems unlikely that Terance Davis will be around as he deals with off-court issues. Matt Thomas grew a lot as the season went on, and would be an awesome threat off the bench mixed into lineups with starters to throw different looks at opponents. Pat McCaw still exists and could figure into the deep bench. Others such as: Oshae Brissett, Paul Watson Jr, Chris Boucher, Dewan Hernandez, and Stanley Johnson could fit into the equation if they show growth with the Raptors this season.

Of course, the Toronto Raptors have two drafts before the 2021-2022 season that could see them land players to fill the bench on cheap contracts. Ideally, whomever they draft with the 29th pick next week will be a third point guard behind Fred and Kyle, or a second string big off of the bench as a 7th-9th man. This could be Theo Maldeon, Malachi Flynn, Xavier Tillman, among others that could be a contributor with this Raptors Lineup.

As for players that could be targeted by the Raptors from elsewhere, there are options. One option that I believe would be a fantastic bench fit is former Raptor Delon Wright. He is long, a solid defender, as well as a good playmaker that would allow the Raptors to mix in different looks than the undersized Fred and Kyle point guard lineups. He is under contract for two more years but could be acquired for a reasonable price. If they go with the no true centre lineup, it would be important to have a good one coming off the bench. Tristan Thompson, Aron Baynes, or Daniel Theis all would be players who would be strong off the bench, a reasonable price, and capable of starting when other players are injured.

Three different Top-10 Player rotation options

The Toronto Raptors have plenty of flexibility for a Giannis led team. They are a team with plenty of versatility and are ready to add a Superstar. Masai and company will have many options moving forward. Here are my three favourite options for a primary 10 player Raptors rotation for the 2021-2022 season, assuming they land their prized target Giannis Antetokounmpo. Of course, variations of these could be achieved as well.

Option 1 – Familiar Faces

– Keep the pick this year and draft a big.
– Trade Powell for Delon Wright and a 2nd round pick
– Sign Thompson for the Mid-Level (Serge would be priority one but is likely priced out)

PG – Kyle Lowry
SG – Fred VanVleet
SF – OG Anunoby
PF – Pascal Siakam
C – Giannis Antetokounmpo
BENCH – Delon Wright
BENCH – Matt Thomas
BENCH – Tristan Thompson or Serge Ibaka
BENCH – Paul Watson Jr

BENCH – Xavier Tillman

 

Option 2 – Trade the vets

– Trade Kyle and Serge to acquire LeVert and Allen.
– Draft a guard.
– Trade Norm for Fournier to add playmaking (could also just stick with Norm).

PG – Fred VanVleet
SG – Caris LeVert
SF -OG Anunoby
PF -Pascal Siakam
C -Giannis Antetokounmpo
BENCH – Jarrett Allen
BENCH -Evan Fournier or Norman Powell
BENCH -Theo Maledon
BENCH -Paul Watson Jr
BENCH -Chris Boucher

Option 3 – Fred leaves, let’s get crazy

– Sign and trade Fred to the Pacers for Myles Turner.
– Trade OG to the Pelicans with picks to acquire Jrue Holiday.
– Keep Norm, we have enough playmaking with Lowry and Jrue.
– Sign Baynes (Maybe Thompson or Theis instead). Ibaka will be priced out.

PG – Kyle Lowry
SG – Jrue Holiday
SF – Pascal Siakam
PF – Giannis Antetokounmpo
C – Myles Turner
BENCH – Norman Powell
BENCH – Aron Baynes
BENCH – Matt Thomas
BENCH – Paul Watson Jr
BENCH – Chris Boucher

How the Raptors can reset without a rebuild

The NBA is a league where superstars win championships. Whether it’s Lebron James and Anthony Davis this year, Kevin Durant and Stephen Curry in 2017-18, or the San Antonio Spurs before them, teams don’t win big without superstars. Sure, there are some exceptions (the 2004 Pistons being the prime example), but they’re few and far … Read more

Evaluating the Raptors roster needs

In organizations where people are the key resources that dictate performance, human resource managers often use replacement charts to visualize which employees can, and will replace their outgoing co-workers. In the basketball realm, replacement charts could be equated to teams’ depth charts – something that is used both formally by teams, and casually by the … Read more

Don’t give up on Pascal Siakam

Every mediocre investor knows that in order to make money on the stock market, you should aim to buy low, and sell high. Unfortunately, sports fans don’t always carry the same demeanor. If Pascal Siakam were a stock right now, he would be trading for pennies. His performance all throughout the NBA bubble, and especially … Read more

Giannis Antetokounmpo’s second round exit sparks optimism for Raptors fans

For the better part of the past decade, Toronto Raptors fans have longed to see Giannis Antetokounmpo don the red and white colours of the North. What began as a pipe dream with photoshopped images circulating Twitter, and fans stirring up stories of how the Greek Freak might appreciate Toronto’s cultural diversity on Reddit, may … Read more

Who should be the Toronto Raptors’ eighth man?

As the Toronto Raptors’ players begin to settle into their hotels, and the playoffs slowly inch closer, it is time to discuss everyone’s favourite conversation topic, playoff rotations. A typical NBA season will see a team give nine, ten, sometimes even 11 players significant minutes. Due to the Raptors’ crushing injury woe’s, and Nick Nurse’s … Read more

Pascal Has Much More Room to Grow, and That’s Great

As I sat there, casually absorbing some statistical information, something had caught my eye; in wins, Pascal Siakam averages 25.0 PPG on a stellar .591% true shooting rate. In losses, those numbers spiral downwards to become 19.4 PPG on an abysmal .461% true shooting rate. While there was a stark difference in time played in … Read more